Market Mondays: Industry Future?

So even as the industry is in trouble agents are actually experiencing an upswing in queries. Perhaps it's the current recession driving people to write, losing your job gives you time to pursue your dream of getting published. I tend to think that is a simplistic look at what's happening. It may explain some of the bump in submissions, but that can only be a short term impact. Eventually those who lost their jobs will get new ones. Starving writers are romantic in fiction, but it's a less attractive life if you actually are starving. So what do I think may make up the rest of the rise in queries? Well let's look at the reality of the situation and the future.

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First of all, there is no money in books. J.K. Rawling aside, most authors make a pittance for much of their career. Now show me 20 published books later and we're talking, but how many make it that far? I understand that there will always be dreamers who expect writing to pay their way. But when a mortgage payment is due: How many are going to choose writing over any other form of employment with an hourly wage? Even sitting on a street corner begging can bring in more (though 300$/month isn't that great).

Today the industry is facing the largest changes to the publishing model since the Printing Press. The Internet? Ebooks? Kindle? Print on Demand? Where the technological changes are taking us is a subject of much debate. Can the business change in such a way as to ensure survival? Is it just a matter of improved marketing and lower pricing? Not everyone agrees it's that simple. Readers are driven by a number of factors in making a purchasing decision beyond price. Corey Doctorow perhaps has the best take on this. He believes the industry will survive, but with massive changes. There will be more niche markets for authors, and less of a role for large publishing houses to play. Something that is being witnessed in the music and film industries today.

However people are still writing, and querying in increasing numbers. So why do I think it's happening? Hope, not hope for a better income, but hope for recognition, for discussion, for change and a better world even. These people don't care that the industry is struggling and collapsing around them. They create because they can, and they want to share their messages and ideas. I have no idea what Paramount Pictures, or Producer Jerry Bruckheimer think of the average Youtube video, but they'd be fools not to acknowledge the impact on their industry by the content producers on Youtube. People who could not get a voice in the mainstream market and industry, found and created their own niches and markets. While major studios struggle, 1000's of individuals have found their voice. Whatever future comes for the publishing industry, it will be driven by the content producers, the Writers creating and submitting today, and their Readers. Anyone who tries to control or constrict the channel between them will eventually find themselves shunted to the side as an impediment to progress.

As dark as the world may seem, people are realizing that we are at the beginning of a new century that will probably see more change than the previous 10 combined. New ideas on government, or social interactions are being developed right now by people young and old. The impossible is made reality on a daily basis, be it medical miracles or new technological marvels. While the world struggles with global warming, the prize of free (or near zero cost) energy comes closer and closer to fruition. With all of that going on around us: Who can't help but dream a little?




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44th President of those United States

I say 'those' because I'm not American. However I have nothing but good feelings for my neighbours to the South nearly 99.999% of the time. With this new President will come a great number of changes in Science, Technology and Environmental policies.

Some of the changes that I await with Excitement:
The creation of the CTO (Chief Technology Officer) position, this is an important step to bring the American Government's Policies and Technology into the 21st Century.
The replacement of the current FCC Chairperson, with someone who is able to understand and work with the desires of consumers and business.
Finally the Changes in Energy Policy driven by people like Steven Chu as the Energy Secretary, while still having someone running the EPA who actually understands the environments needs/limits.

Ultimately though I wish them (the Americans) more satisfaction with this administration than they had with the last one.

Watching the inauguration of Obama some things resonated with me. This is an office that has passed non-violently between it's holders 44 times now in history. This is a remarkable achievement for any country when you look at the longer history for Humans. When I read Speculative Fiction I typically find Democracies to be in the minority. Many times it's the dream of a protagonist, but just as many times I've seen it reviled by characters. The sad thing is that rarely a different alternative to Democracy is presented in these stories other than the various forms of Tyranny that we've known throughout history.

Why is it that a world with spaceships, massive power generation ability, and advanced biomedical treatments has a King? Technology both changes and enables change within the societies that spawns it. It is illogical to expect modern soldiers to carry swords on the battlefield, not when Guns exist. It should be equally illogical to expect future societies to govern themselves in limited traditional manners when new technology will exist.

I don't buy a King with a spaceship, but I would buy something like Realtime Democracy, a constant monitoring of opinions and beliefs of the existent society. If you watch 24 hour news you might believe we are already there.


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